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Pre-stack seismic prediction of physical parameters of gas hydrate reservoirs based on rock-physics models and Bayesian statistical inversion

Wenqiang Yang1,2,3,4* ,  Tingming Tang4,5 ,  Wenchuan Qi6 ,  Yue Zhang6
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1 School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, Xi’an Petroleum University, Xi’an, Shaanxi , China
2 Key Laboratory of Petroleum Resources Exploration and Evaluation, Gansu Province, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, Gansu , China
3 Key Laboratory of Exploration Technologies for Oil and Gas Resources (Yangtze University), Ministry of Education, Wuhan, Hubei , China
4 Key Laboratory of Conglomerate Reservoir Exploration and Development, China National Petroleum Corporation, Karamay, Xinjiang , China
5 Well Logging Research Institute, Research Institute of Exploration and Development, Xinjiang Oilfield Company, PetroChina, Karamay, Xinjiang , China
6 No.7 Oil Production Plant of Changqing Oilfield Branch of PetroChina, Qingyang, Gansu , China
JSE, 026260114 https://doi.org/10.36922/JSE026260114
Received: 24 June 2026 | Revised: 8 August 2026 | Accepted: 13 August 2026 | Published online: 14 October 2026
© 2026 by the Author(s). This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License ( https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ )
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Abstract

Rock-physics models serve as a bridge, establishing quantitative relationships between physical properties and elastic parameters of gas hydrate reservoirs, thereby guiding the prediction of reservoir properties using pre-stack seismic data. However, classical rock-physics modeling methods for hydrate reservoirs, based on pore-filling and load-bearing modes, are idealized assumptions regarding the microscopic occurrence modes of hydrates. Experimental studies have shown that, with increasing hydrate saturation, the hydrate occurrence mode transitions from pore-filling to load-bearing. Therefore, we developed a rock-physics model based on effective medium theory that dynamically describes the coexistence of hydrates in both the pore space and the solid matrix, and employed the generalized Gassmann equation to more accurately estimate the shear-wave velocity of hydrate-bearing sediments. By treating the hydrate content in the pore space or solid matrix as a variable and constraining the model calculations with logging P-wave velocity data, the proposed model quantifies the partitioning of hydrate content between the pore space and the solid matrix, thereby revealing the microscopic occurrence mode of hydrates. Furthermore, we integrated the constructed rock-physics model with a Bayesian statistical inversion strategy. Using the quantitative relationship between elastic impedance derived from the model and the reservoir properties (porosity, clay content, and hydrate saturation), combined with the Metropolis–Hastings sampling algorithm and the Monte Carlo Expectation–Maximization (MCEM) algorithm, we realized pre-stack seismic inversion for the physical parameters of hydrate reservoirs. The validity of the constructed rock-physics model was verified using logging and seismic data from the hydrate study area in the Shenhu area of the South China Sea, and the accuracy of the predicted reservoir properties was further demonstrated. Therefore, integration of the dynamic hydrate model with Bayesian inversion ensures reliable predictions of reservoir physical properties based on quantified elastic–physical parameter relationships.

Keywords
Gas hydrate
Rock-physics
Pre-stack seismic inversion
Physical parameters
Funding
This work was supported by the Natural Science Basic Research Program of Shaanxi (Program No. 2026JC-YBQN-0374), the Scientific Research Program Funded by the Education Department of Shaanxi Provincial Government (Program No. 25JK0612), the Open Fund of Key Laboratory of Exploration Technologies for Oil and Gas Resources (Yangtze University), the Ministry of Education (No K2015-12), and the Key Laboratory of Petroleum Resources Exploration and Evaluation, Gansu Province, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences (Program No. KLPREEGS-2025-02).
Conflict of interest
Wenqiang Yang is affiliated with Xi’an Petroleum University, and Tingming Tang, Wenchuan Qi, and Yue Zhang are employees of China National Petroleum Corporation; however, they were not involved in any activities that could constitute a conflict of interest in relation to this study.
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Journal of Seismic Exploration, Print ISSN: 0963-0651, Published by AccScience Publishing
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