AccScience Publishing / JSE / Online First / DOI: 10.36922/JSE025310049
ARTICLE

Time-lapse earthquake difference prediction based on physics-informed long short-term memory coupled with interpretability boosting

Tianwen Zhao1 Guoqing Chen2 Cong Pang3,4 Palakorn Seenoi5 Nipada Papukdee6 Piyapatr Busababodhin7*
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1 Department of Trade and Logistics, Daegu Catholic University, Gyeongsan, Daegu, Republic of Korea
2 Mathematical Modeling Research Center, Chengdu Jincheng College, Chengdu, Sichuan, China
3 Institute of Seismology Earthquake Administration, Wuhan, Hubei, China
4 National Observation and Research Station for Wuhan Gravitation and Solid Earth Tides, Hubei Earthquake Administration, Wuhan, Hubei, China
5 Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science, Khon Kaen University, Mueang Khon Kaen, Khon Kaen, Thailand
6 Department of Applied Statistics, Rajamangala University of Technology Isan Khon Kaen Campus, Mueang Khon Kaen, Khon Kaen, Thailand
7 Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Mahasarakham University, Kantharawichai, Maha Sarakham, Thailand
JSE 2025, 34(3), 025310049 https://doi.org/10.36922/JSE025310049
Submitted: 29 July 2025 | Revised: 27 August 2025 | Accepted: 29 August 2025 | Published: 6 October 2025
© 2025 by the Author(s). This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License ( https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ )
Abstract

Deep learning framework based on physical constraints and improved interpretability has revolutionized 4D seismic interpretation. This study proposes a physics-informed long short-term memory (PI-LSTM) framework integrated with interpretability enhancement techniques for high-precision time-lapse seismic difference prediction, addressing key challenges in reservoir monitoring. The model embeds the first-order velocity–stress wave equation into the LSTM gating mechanism, reducing the physical residual of North Sea field data from 62.3 kPa to 15.2 kPa—a 75.6% decrement. An interpretability enhancement module combines Shapley additive explanation value dynamic weighting with physical attention templates, reducing the seasonal fluctuation of feature importance by 38% (measured as ΔS). Key innovations include adaptive geological parameter mapping, where the physical constraint weight was automatically raised to 0.89 ± 0.04 when porosity exceeded 15%. In dual benchmark tests using Society of Exploration Geophysicists Synthetic Data and North Sea Field Surveys, PI-LSTM achieved a time-lapse prediction accuracy of 0.71–2.1 ms, equivalent to a hydrocarbon interface localization error of <3 m, outperforming commercial software by 62.9%. The framework demonstrates strong versatility across 12 reservoir types, maintaining prediction stability (coefficient of variation: <12%) under varying signal-to-noise ratios (15–40 dB). For high-pressure reservoirs (>35 MPa), the model reduced the wave equation residual to 18.6 kPa, 67.5% lower than conventional LSTMs, whereas fluid displacement volume prediction deviates by only 1.8% from well data. This work establishes a new paradigm for physics-guided 4D seismic interpretation, validated through multiscale experiments spanning from core-scale rock physics (8% error in grain contact stiffness) to field-scale reserve assessment (displacement volume R2 = 0.94).

Keywords
Physics-informed long short-term memory
Time-lapse seismic data
Interpretable machine learning
Reservoir monitoring
Wave equation constraints
Funding
This research was financially supported by Mahasarakham University; 2025 Doctoral Special Support Program Project of Chengdu Jincheng College (NO.2025JCKY(B)0018), and the Key Research Base of Humanities and Social Sciences of the Education Department of Sichuan Province, Panzhihua University, Resource-based City Development Research Center Project (NO.ZYZX-YB-2404).
Conflict of interest
The authors declare they have no competing interests.
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Journal of Seismic Exploration, Print ISSN: 0963-0651, Published by AccScience Publishing